🗞️ Weekly Market Recap (May 27–31, 2025): Trade Tensions Resurface, Bitcoin Slips, Nvidia Powers Nasdaq Rally
As May wrapped up, markets juggled a short holiday week with a mix of bullish momentum in tech, renewed tariff drama, and volatile crypto action. While Wall Street advanced overall, global trade concerns and currency shifts kept investors on edge. Here’s your full recap of this week’s top investing, trading, and economic stories.
📊 Market Performance Overview
| Index | Close (May 31) | Weekly Change | Previous Close (May 24) |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5,911.00 | 🔼 +1.88% | 5,802.00 |
| Dow Jones | 42,196.00 | 🔼 +1.50% | 41,573.00 |
| Nasdaq | 21,340.00 | 🔼 +2.15% | 20,891.00 |
Despite a shortened trading week due to Memorial Day, all three major U.S. indexes finished firmly in the green. The Nasdaq outperformed, driven by Nvidia’s blowout earnings, while the S&P 500 approached recent highs, although still below its all-time peak of 6,138.
🏦 Economic & Monetary Policy Updates
🔁 U.S. Tariffs: Legal Reversal Then Reinstatement
- A U.S. federal appeals court struck down several global tariffs originally enacted during Trump’s presidency, citing that the emergency authority had been overstepped. Markets initially reacted positively.
- However, the same court later reinstated some tariffs on Chinese imports, reigniting trade tensions and introducing new volatility. This legal back-and-forth underscored the uncertain nature of U.S. trade policy.
🇲🇽 Banxico Slashes GDP Outlook
- Mexico’s central bank cut its 2025 GDP forecast from 0.6% to 0.1%, with domestic investment and consumption weaker than expected. The 2026 projection was also reduced from 1.8% to 0.9%.
🇪🇸 Spanish Inflation Slows
- Spain’s inflation dropped to 1.9% in May, driven by lower prices in leisure, culture, and transportation.
📈 Stock Market Highlights
🔼 U.S. Markets
- Thursday (May 30): Stocks rose as the initial tariff ruling boosted investor optimism.
- S&P 500: +0.40%
- Dow Jones: +0.28%
- Nasdaq: +0.09%
- Friday (May 31): Markets dipped after the court reinstated some China tariffs.
🇲🇽 Mexican Markets
- The S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.23% on Thursday and slid 1.32% on Friday, ending at 57,841.69. Revised GDP figures and global tensions dampened sentiment.
🇪🇸 European Markets
- Spain’s Ibex 35 rose 0.11% to 14,100 on Friday, supported by gains in renewable energy and fashion retailer Inditex.
🇷🇺 Russia’s MOEX Index
- The MOEX Russia Index jumped 1.23% to 2,827.28 as local confidence drove buying.
🪙 Cryptocurrency Market Recap
₿ Bitcoin Slides Below $104K
- Bitcoin (BTC) started the week near $109,000 but declined steadily to close Friday at $103,866, reflecting market caution amid trade uncertainty. Weekly change: -4.78%.
📉 Ethereum & BNB Retreat
- Ethereum (ETH) fell to $2,519, while BNB dropped to $655 after initially testing resistance around $687. Crypto sentiment weakened alongside Bitcoin’s pullback.
⚖️ Key Legal & Regulatory Developments
- The SEC dropped its lawsuit against Binance, signaling a potential shift in regulatory tone. (El País)
- It also issued new guidance on crypto staking, stating that most forms do not qualify as securities, providing clarity for DeFi platforms.
⏳ $11.4B in Crypto Options Expired
- Over $11.4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired Friday, contributing to short-term volatility and investor repositioning.
📦 Earnings & Corporate Highlights
💻 Tech & Software
- 🧠 Nvidia blew past expectations in Q1 FY2026:
- Revenue: $44.1B (+69% YoY, beating $43.3B estimates)
- Data center revenue: $39.1B (+73% YoY)
- $4.5B inventory write-down due to H20 export curbs
➤ Stock rose 4%, cementing Nvidia’s AI leadership.
- Okta and Box reported strong quarters, though Okta’s valuation drew investor concern.
- HP Inc. slashed its outlook, citing demand weakness and supply chain shifts away from China.
🛍️ Retail & Consumer Goods
- Gap Inc. reported 2.2% sales growth and 22% profit increase, but warned of $300M in tariff-related costs this year. Shares fell 15%.
- Macy’s and Best Buy both cut guidance:
- Macy’s cited weak consumer demand.
- Best Buy flagged rising costs from tariffs
- Ulta Beauty raised its annual outlook on strong beauty sales.
🧃 Food & Consumer Products
- Hormel Foods reduced profit guidance, projecting a 1–2 cent EPS hit from tariffs in H2 2025.
📡 Other Highlights
- Broadcom is expected to post 43% earnings growth, thanks to booming AI chip demand.
- CrowdStrike projected weaker Q1 adjusted profits.
- Salesforce results are upcoming, with analysts watching for enterprise IT spending signals.
💱 Forex & Currency Markets
💵 U.S. Dollar (USD)
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.25% in May, marking its fifth straight monthly decline, as investor confidence wanes amid trade policy confusion and fiscal concerns.
💶 Euro (EUR)
- EUR/USD traded between 1.12 and 1.14, showing limited movement. The euro held steady as traders remained cautious about EU and U.S. economic outlooks.
💴 Japanese Yen (JPY)
- The yen strengthened 0.3%, with USD/JPY at 143.80, after Tokyo’s core inflation hit a two-year high, fueling speculation of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
🇲🇽 Mexican Peso (MXN)
- The peso weakened 0.44% on Friday, closing at 19.3957 MXN/USD. Despite the drop, the currency remains relatively stable given recent central bank moves.
🔍 Key Takeaways
✅ Markets rose, led by the Nasdaq on Nvidia’s strength.
⚠️ Tariff drama returned, driving volatility and dampening global sentiment.
📉 Bitcoin slid below $104K, dragging Ethereum and BNB lower.
🏪 Retail earnings were mixed, with tariffs cited as a major cost threat.
🧾 Regulatory clarity in crypto helped limit downside for Ethereum-based projects.
📅 Looking Ahead
📆 June 2 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI
📆 June 4 – ADP Employment Report
📆 June 6 – Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
📆 June 17–18 – Next FOMC Meeting
📆 July 9 – Proposed 50% tariffs on EU goods deadline
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